Constructing a sustainable product technique throughout an financial downturn
Shiny object syndrome is an actual drawback within the product area. For years I’ve watched product groups pour time and assets into chasing shiny new objects with out first taking the time to evaluate if their technique adequately meets each the shopper’s present and future wants.
Absolutely constructing shiny new objects is an try to satisfy the longer term wants of shoppers as nicely? True, nevertheless it’s additionally an enormous gamble. Particularly when the underlying premise relies on some hypothetical prediction of future adjustments to the market or buyer wants. It’s higher to first ask what’s not going to vary and construct a technique for that.
I have a tendency to not quote well-known firms and founders as I consider that by doing so I’m ignoring the ingredient of survivorship bias of their success story, however this quote from Jeff Bezos is universally relevant. It basically shifts one’s thoughts again to a spot of foundational pondering and it’s the foundation on which this whole submit is constructed.
“I very steadily get the query: ‘What’s going to vary within the subsequent 10 years?’ And that may be a very attention-grabbing query; it’s a quite common one. I virtually by no means get the query: ‘What’s not going to vary within the subsequent 10 years?’
And I undergo you that that second query is definitely the extra necessary of the 2 — as a result of you possibly can construct a enterprise technique across the issues which might be steady in time … In our retail enterprise, we all know that clients need low costs, and I do know that’s going to be true 10 years from now. They need quick supply; they need huge choice.” — Jeff Bezos
We regularly discover ourselves wanting into the longer term and asking “how is the market going to vary?”, “what is going to clients need that they don’t have now?” or “what new product or characteristic will assist us win?”, and while these are necessary inquiries to ask, particularly as we’re already seeing adjustments available in the market, we first want to start with “what’s not going to vary?” and construct a technique from there. And given the financial turmoil dealing with us at the moment, it’s extra necessary to begin from right here, now greater than ever.
Some would possibly see this strategy or mindset as unimaginative, unprogressive and simply downright boring, however the actuality is that disrupting a market by new product innovation is like successful the lottery. Luck, timing and product market match will play an even bigger position than we may probably ever think about. It’s why so many firms fail regardless of having an “progressive” product.
Blockbuster Video not seeing the digital revolution early on and due to this fact not constructing to guard themselves from the oncoming market shift, meant that they ultimately misplaced to Netflix.
I’m not saying that there isn’t a danger to this “what’s not going to vary” strategy and positive there are occasions once you completely ought to be asking “what’s going to vary within the subsequent 5 to 10 years?”. But when these are the one questions you’re asking then statistically you’re prone to fail, as we people have by no means been good at predicting the longer term.
The issue with attempting to foretell the longer term is that the uncertainty will increase the additional out you go as there are infinitely extra doable outcomes. After all, there are latest prediction alerts that we are able to use to foretell the longer term, however even these supply no ensures and generally, are ineffective past a sure level.
My badly drawn diagram under is my try to clarify what I imply.
Utilizing this strategy we are able to begin to construct a enterprise technique round that which we consider will stay constant. For instance, if I have a look at the corporate I’m working for now, an occasion know-how platform, I may carry out a thought train round what I consider is unlikely to vary over the following 10 years. So what do I do know for positive that’s not going to vary?
- Proceed to run occasions (be it onsite, hybrid or digital). → Organisers usually are not going to all of a sudden cease operating occasions.
- Run occasions which might be straightforward to create and organise. → Nobody desires a creation course of that’s advanced to construct.
- Encourage attendees to interact with their occasions. → Nobody desires to run occasions with disengaged attendees.
- Perceive the worth of their occasions. → Nobody desires to run an occasion the place they don’t get worth.
- Entry a dependable platform to run occasions. → Nobody desires to run an occasion with a poor audio/video expertise.
With the above, I’ve the foundations to construct a sustainable product technique with decrease danger to assist navigate me by the present financial downturn. Apply a bit little bit of market analysis and you’ll validate and perhaps even determine potential gaps. Then finalise with a spherical of quant evaluation and also you’re good to go.
Notice: for the report, don’t let anybody let you know that this strategy is boring and never progressive sufficient or you possibly can’t innovate within the secure area, you completely can. There are 4 several types of innovation and incremental innovation is one in every of them!
The world is advanced and unpredictable. People have been attempting to foretell the longer term for the reason that days of the Maya Civilization. Prime financial and political forecasters are virtually at all times improper they usually’re by no means requested to return and clarify why. They simply make their forecast and transfer on. Wharton professor Philip Tetlock confirmed in a landmark research that even consultants’ predictions are solely barely higher than probability* so what hope do you could have of predicting the longer term for a market you barely know.
My recommendation, deal with what just isn’t going to vary and hope you possibly can spot indicators of tectonic shifts early on and adapt. Hopefully you’ll be capable to safely navigate your self out of the financial turbulence utilizing this strategy. It’s not attractive, however neither are the present instances we dwell in.
I’d love to listen to your ideas, so go away a remark or present your appreciation with some claps.
Bhav
There some exceptions and in case you’re occupied with understanding how one can develop into higher at forecasting and predictions, I extremely advocate the e book “Superforecasting” by Philip Tetlock.
