The post-Covid ecommerce hangover has hit Roman Kahn. He launched his first direct-to-consumer model in 2013, acquired others, and in 2021 based Peak 21, an aggregator with fairness traders. The outlook was good.
Quick ahead to 2024, and plenty of ecommerce firms are struggling. Mergers and acquisitions have cratered. But Kahn perseveres. His staff evaluations dozens of buy candidates each month, albeit cautiously.
In our latest dialog, Kahn shared his funding standards, present market situations, and predictions for a restoration. The complete audio is embedded under. The transcript is edited for readability and size.
Eric Bandholz: Give us a rundown of what you do.
Roman Khan: I’m the founder and president of an ecommerce holding firm referred to as Peak 21. We purchase, develop, and promote direct-to-consumer manufacturers. My DTC expertise started in 2013 when my spouse, Jennifer, and I began Linjer. We offered leather-based luggage however now it’s principally jewellery. We launched it on Indiegogo.
By 2016, we had been doing a few million in annual income — large enough for Jennifer and me to stop our jobs to work on it full-time. In 2017, Linjer produced $1 million in EBITDA — earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. By then we had raised fairly a bit of cash on Kickstarter and Indiegogo and constructed up road cred. Of us had been reaching out, asking us how we did it. We determined to diversify. We would have liked extra manufacturers, and Meta adverts had been working nicely.
I took that $1 million of money, our road cred, and mixed sweat fairness with money to spend money on three different DTC firms. Every was doing lower than $1 million in income yearly. By 2019, we had been doing $50 million in gross sales as a bunch.
When Covid hit in 2020, income ballooned to $100 million yearly. In 2021, traders had been knocking on our door, notably Jeffrey Yan, whose household owned Forbes Media up till this 12 months. He got here to my workplace and mentioned I wanted to tackle exterior capital to purchase extra outstanding firms.
We arrange a particular objective acquisition firm — a clean examine firm — referred to as Peak 21. Jeffrey Yan and others invested eight figures in fairness. We’re now utilizing that SPAC to purchase firms. We search manufacturers doing $5 to $50 million in annual gross sales.
Bandholz: What’s an excellent acquisition candidate?
Khan: The pool is shrinking. I’ve spoken with many house owners. My acquisitions staff talks to 100-plus companies each month. Solely about 10% have a product-market match that may develop with low budgets. Our most important criterion now’s measurement. We have a look at the basics. What’s the shopper acquisition value? And the repeat purchaser fee? The most effective situation is 70% of first-time patrons repeat within the first quarter. We all know the funding will doubtless work out on the fee.
Two, we have a look at clients’ shopping for habits. As an example, we personal an organization referred to as Vitamin Kitchen. It’s a every day meal supply service. Day by day reasonably than weekly or month-to-month habits play a big function.
Past consumables, we have a look at contribution margins on three ranges.
First, we calculate income (internet of taxes and coupon-driven gross sales) and delivery charges collected at checkout. That leaves us with “revenue contribution one” — PC1.
Then, we deduct roughly 10 variable prices, reminiscent of warehouse storage, pick-and-pack, delivery charges, returns, and exchanges. That ends in revenue contribution two — PC2.
Lastly, we deduct advertising to find out PC3.
From PC3 we subtract working bills to reach at EBITDA.
A key acquisition metric is a 50% or larger PC2 whereas sustaining a aggressive urged retail worth.
Bandholz: 100 candidates a month is rather a lot to overview.
Roman: Many ecommerce firms are struggling now. Income and EBITDA are down. Out of our six most important manufacturers, two are struggling massively. General we’re okay. We’re rising with a diversified portfolio. However these two are a nightmare. We now have lent over $1 million to every one within the final 24 months. So it’s been onerous. Many founders are holding out till 2025 or 2026 to promote.
We purchase firms in 4 methods. One is money. Two is vendor financing. Three is utilizing debt, the place we borrow the cash in opposition to the acquired firm’s worth. That avenue, I ought to add, could be very difficult now. The fourth technique is an fairness swap whereby we purchase an organization with Peak 21 inventory. Money is scarce proper now. Our willingness to pay quite a lot of money upfront is low to non-existent. We’re typically the one actual patrons when speaking to an organization.
For the market to enhance, two issues have to occur. First, traders should recover from the losses from aggregators, reminiscent of Perch, Thrasio, and others. Second, rates of interest have to come back down. As soon as that occurs, liquidity will loosen up, and hopefully, the market will return, doubtless by Q1 2026 in my estimation.
Bandholz: How can listeners contact you?
Khan: Our web site Peak21.io. They’ll message me on X or on LinkedIn.
