Planning poker relies on a course of often called Wideband Delphi. It’s time to rediscover the underlying methodology, developed in levels first at RAND within the 50s after which by the late, nice Barry Boehm and John Farquhar. This iterative, consensus-driven strategy is probably the most correct estimating methodology obtainable.
Begin by insuring everyone seems to be well-informed about what’s being estimated. Watch out that the individual explaining the venture doesn’t bias everybody. This may be mitigated by sharing this accountability.
Contain folks with good data of the area. You can begin with as few as two, though estimates will enhance as extra people are added till about 5.
Choose a various array of individuals to mitigate choice bias. Whereas area data is essential, attempt to embody people who find themselves off the group and even socially distant. With a ample variety of folks, you may eradicate these in authority from the train, as these individuals are inclined to affect others.
If the vary of estimates isn’t narrowing as you iterate, have everybody reveal the rationale behind their estimates, not simply the outliers.
Doc all rationales all through the method, as these could inform your closing report back to stakeholders.
If it emerges that info is lacking or requested for, cease to search out it, after which reconvene. Once you reconvene, first replay the final spherical and skim out the final revealed rationales for estimates.
Three iterations are sometimes all that’s wanted for convergence, with estimates narrowed however unlikely to additional converge.
When you’re able to derive an estimate from this train, it’s possible you’ll use the median or common of particular person estimates. If you wish to respect an outlier opinion, select averaging. If there’s a clump of settlement you respect extra, select the median.
The remaining dispersion in estimates can be utilized to ascertain an uncertainty round your closing estimate, so as a substitute of “20 months” you may report “15 to 30 months with 20 almost definitely”.
Whereas Wideband Delphi could be completed effectively, its iterations are most likely overkill for dash planning. Nevertheless, a lot of what occurs in growth spans a number of sprints. Subsequent time you’ve gotten an epic to scope out or a significant function to decide to in a street map, give it a strive.
My pal Ricardo Valerdi took a deep dive on Wideband Delphi.
