FX chairman of content material and productions John Landgraf, who coined the phrase “peak TV” again in 2015, believes the business has certainly peaked.
In 2022, Tv output elevated to 599 scripted sequence—probably the most of all time, in line with FX’s annual tally. And it’s not sustainable.
“I feel we have now a robust indication that we’re going to begin to see a decline at first of 2023,” Landgraf stated throughout his annual government session on the 2023 Winter Tv Critics Affiliation Press Tour in Pasadena, Calif.
Final yr noticed a 7% year-over-year enhance in scripted originals, however FX’s analysis discovered the variety of new sequence decreased within the second half of the yr, dropping by 2%.
“In August [Summer 2022 TCA Press Tour], I stated it will be the 2020s you’d discover the market peak of scripted sequence TV sequence, and that’s nonetheless my wager whereas noting with humility that I’ve been unsuitable on this prediction twice earlier than,” Landgraf stated.
For an instance of the downward pattern, look no additional than FX’s programming.
In 2022, FX had 19 returning packages and 6 one-off sequence. In 2023, FX will broadcast 23 sequence in complete.
Regardless of having fewer sequence, it’s a quality-over-quantity story for FX. The corporate’s 2023 lineup consists of Season 2 of The Bear, Season 3 of Reservation Canine and the restricted sequence Shogun, which can be considered one of FX’s biggest-scale sequence but.
FX content material is protected… for now
The community (and its content material on Hulu) had considered one of its finest years in 2022, with Welcome to Wrexham changing into the most-watched unscripted sequence in FX historical past, and the highly-acclaimed first season of The Bear drawing 140,000 concurrent streams of its eight episodes the morning after its launch.
However Landgraf expects the business to expertise a “narrowing” of the streaming world, serving to clarify why streaming providers like HBO Max have been yanking licensed and older content material.
FX presently doesn’t have “particular plans” to make any comparable strikes. Nonetheless, Landgraf stated the corporate “wouldn’t rule something out,” pointing to the event of latest applied sciences which have upended how networks create and distribute packages.
“The web removes constraints that used to exist on quantity,” stated Landgraf, including, “You had a restricted quantity of shelf area. It’s figuring it out once more. You simply can’t take this infinite amount of cash and dump it on one thing. It will get stale.”
Media corporations are additionally experiencing difficulties with consumer interfaces and discoverability whereas juggling 1000’s of items of content material.
“I feel the business as an entire goes via this reckoning and realizing you’ll be able to’t simplify as a lot… we’re on this interval of radical transformation,” Landgraf stated.
Shifting advertising budgets
Because the streaming business continues to evolve, the way in which FX and Landgraf market new sequence has shifted as nicely.
“You clearly can’t afford to make 599 tv reveals and market all of them like The Bear or Home of the Dragon,” he stated. “Our entire advertising funds has modified.”
Beforehand, FX would’ve put 90% of its funds into the premiere of a present, however now lower than 50% is targeted on the primary episode, with Landgraf saying “each facet” of the corporate’s advertising plans needed to be restructured.
An emphasis on range
Since scripted sequence could decline in 2023, Landgraf worries that the narrowing of the window may negatively impression numerous voices and storytelling as corporations could program for the widest obtainable viewers.
“In the event you’re simply going for the most important meat of the viewers, the bulk, you are inclined to program to white males,” he stated, calling scripted packages that enchantment to males a boon.
“I’d like to go away FX and I’d like to go away this business with [diversity] being regular enterprise,” he stated.
Landgraf referred to as the previous few years of peak TV “a very optimistic profit” relating to numerous storytelling.
“Quite a lot of new individuals received alternatives within the business. So then you definately fear when there’s a narrowing course of, who loses alternative,” Landgraf stated. “Is it the final person who received a possibility, and does that not favor numerous voices?”
The FX chairman stated retailers should resolve “purposefully” to talk to different demographics and praised the DEI work executed at Disney, FX’s guardian firm.
“[Disney] is doing that in every single place throughout its enterprise,” he stated. “It’s making an attempt to succeed in everybody in America.”
